The Poll Results
by David Biltek
This poll has no scientific validity. It was not conducted under any process accepted by polling experts. It was done to provoke interest, encourage participation and perhaps to provide hints to candidates as to what they may need to do.
Some notes:
over 230 people voted for Mayor and over 1230 votes were cast for Councillors, which reflects what we have seen in actual elections. The research suggests that the average person who votes for Mayor, votes for 5 – 6 candidates for Council.
230 people are 2.25 percent of all voters in 2010. and 230 is 50% more people who participated over the last poll.
The poll was posted four times over the weekend mainly on Facebook, but also was sent to a number of people on email, and all were asked to share.
Most of the posts were on Facebook and although Facebook may not be entirely reflective of City Voters there are over 40,000 people from Grande Prairie over the age of 18 on Facebook
the results are somewhat consistent to 2010 final vote total and with even twice the numbers participating in this poll as opposed to the last one, there is some consistency
so again just remember what Diefenbaker said about polls.
But What Do YOU think?
Here are the results:
The first column is poll results Oct 11-14 and second is previous poll from Sept 27 and the third is the actual % from 2010 for incumbents
| Lorne Radbourne | 13% | 13% | 12% | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Munroe | 10% | 11% | 8% | ||||
| Kevin O’Toole | 9% | 9% | 6.5% | ||||
| Jackie Clayton | 8% | 9% | NEW | ||||
| Helen Rice | 8% | 8% | 11% | ||||
| Rory Tarant | 8% | 7% | NEW | ||||
| Chris Thiessen | 9% | 7% | 6% | ||||
| Miriam Mahnic | 7% | 6% | NEW | ||||
|
6% | 4% | 6% | ||||
| John Croken | 4% | 5% | 6.5% | ||||
|
5% | 4% | NEW | ||||
| Dwight Logan | 4% | 5% | |||||
| Erin Steidel | 3% | 4% | 4.6% | ||||
| Kim MacDougall | 4% | 6% | NEW | ||||
| Jun Bibangco | 1% | 1% | NEW | ||||
| Jeff Campbell | 1% | 1% | NEW |
and For Mayor:
| Bill Given | 79% | 83% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gladys Blackmore | 21% | 17% |
Top Issues Influencing your Decision
| Answer | Votes | Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snow Removal | 50 | 8% | |
| Downtown Development | 72 | 12% | |
| Aquatera | 61 | 10% | |
| Crystal Centre | 57 | 9% | |
| Taxes | 85 | 14% | |
| Economic Development | 91 | 15% | |
| Off Leash Dog Areas etc | 25 | 4% | |
| Roads | 62 | 10% | |
| Sidewalks | 26 | 4% | |
| Annexation | 65 | 11% | |
| Other: | 24 | 4% |
| Other Answer | Votes |
|---|---|
| Relationship with province | 1 |
| Transit | 1 |
| Long term vision and how to attract people who will stay! | 1 |
| environment | 1 |
| the high cost of protective services / recreation | 1 |
| Affordable housing | 1 |
| More funding to hire bylaw enforcement | 1 |
| Honesty and trustworthy | 1 |
| utilizing or resources to better our comunity. for example green spaces | 1 |
| Transit improvement and better city planning. | 1 |
| Equitable funding of visual and performing arts facilities | 1 |
| Vision for the city | 1 |
| Leadership | 1 |
| Business access and roadways | 1 |
| Maintaining all of the things that make the city wonderful | 1 |
| High cost of police, fire & recreation. | 1 |
| Candidate Personality | 1 |
| housing crisis, rent rates | 1 |
| Common sense, reason, logic, informed. | 1 |
| Rec centre reopen swimming pool | 1 |
| Candidates ability to connect on a personal level | 1 |
| Crime | 1 |
| Experience | 1 |
Related articles
- They’re off and Running?…and where are they. Poll Results (davidbiltek.wordpress.com)
Good day David,
Thanks for all of your effort to engage the public in discussion. I am very interested in the results, validity disclaimer and all. To pick up on your comment about the participants largely coming from Facebook, I would suggest that the polls fairly account for the politically engaged online public. But not all politically engaged citizen excercise their involvement online. This means that candidates need to assess the importance of thier online campaign to thier overall campaign strategy.
In my opinion, if they are relying heavily on social media, but did not poll well, this should be a red flag that they are going to need a serious GOTV (get out the vote) strategy. On the flip side, if they polled poorly but are not particularily active online or reliant on social media networks, there is no cause for concern. Conversely, if they polled well and rely heavily on thier social media campaign, they need to consider whether thier online presence is either enough on its own, or complemented by a sufficient ground swell of support to keep them in ther race once all the votes are cast. To be safe, I recommend pounding the pavement and making rounds at parks and public facilities. Finally, if they polled well but dont rely on a strong social media campaign, they have reason to be confident going into the stretch.
For more of my thoughts on the campaign trail, visit my blog at mrgrandeprairie.wordpress.com.
some sound advice…there is still much that may be done to improve situation for each candidate. Many years ago a campaign manager won the election for her candidate with a last minute tactic…