They’re off and Running?…and where are they. Poll Results
by David Biltek
…and where are they in the race? The poll results are at the end of this post.
The following is my assessment of where the candidates stand after the first week since nomination day, It is based on these beliefs:
incumbents tend to get re-elected . In the last several elections few candidates have lost, although it is possible and in this election we may see it.
most elections have a ballot question, one issue dominates. This one does not ( see the poll results regarding issues)
low turnout favours the incumbents. It is up to the challengers to motivate people to vote for change. With no “ballot question” yet it will likely be a low turnout, maybe lower than last time (24%)
campaigns can and do make a difference, they expose people and issues.
and there is the secret “sauce: Rotary membership. Members of Rotary tend to get elected, and seldom lose when they run. Last election: Wong, Radbourne, Munroe, Gustafson were all successful and all were Rotarians.
and in a very small way the poll results, but more about them later
I think there are three groups:
Leading and should have no problems being elected:
Incumbents: Radbourne, Munroe, Rice, O’Toole, and newcomer: Clayton (a former and now proposed Rotary member), likely in that order.
Also- rans: Despite some effort, it is likely too little too late for the following people to make much headway:
Bibangco, Campbell, Gossen and Steidel. Erin Steidel ran in the last election and garnered 2294 votes. Gossen and Steidel show well in the poll but it has limited validity.
The Bubble: and here is where there is a real race. The following candidates are all close, so close that it is difficult to make a clear assessment. Last election the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th place people were only separated by 314 votes. I suggest at present these seven people are even closer: Mahnic, McLean, Croken, Logan, Thiessen, MacDougall and Tarant.
from this group McLean, Croken and Logan will have an edge because they are incumbents (although Logan is not actually an incumbent he might as well be considered one). Mahnic (another Rotary member) is well organized and well funded and may make a late charge. Thiessen placed 9th last election and lost by only 190 votes so he does have a base of support and may be able to build on it. MacDougall and Tarant are both working hard and making an impact, will it be enough
So what do the ones in the “Bubble ” need to do to “burst out”? Do, or say something that differentiates you. Especially in an election with no major issues. Perhaps make a policy announcement and drive it home, make it yours, or develop a campaign tactic that will make you stand out. There are many things one can do, the question is will any of them do so?…
The race for Mayor?…based on what I hear, and see I think Given is leading, but not by as much as the poll suggests.
and what about you, what do you think?
Following are the results of the poll in the Friday , September27 Blog Post: Let me stress that these results are NOT statistically valid. The poll was NOT conducted in a manner which would lead to any valid results. It was taken as a way to encourage interest in the election. I have added the percentages from last year, again as a matter of interest. These are the results as of Tuesday at 10PM. There were over 130 people who responded to the question on the Mayor, and over 680 responses for the Council candidates. This reflects previous research which suggests that most people cast votes for 5-6 Councillor Candidates. There were over 550 responses to the “What are the Issues” question. And one last thing, it was John Diefenbaker who said: “… dogs know best what to do with polls.” and having said that, here are the results:
|Crystal Centre expand or not||11%|
|The future of the Leisure Centre||7%|
|Roads and sidewalks||10%|
|Future of Local Government / Regionalization||1|
|Lobbying for equal funding policies provincially between city and county||1|
|Lack of provincial support||1|
|While important, I doubt any of these will affect selection or results.||1|
|creating a long term plan for development of the City as a whlole||1|
|Poor choices on what you spend our taxes on!!!||1|
|Snow ploughing in winter is terrible.||1|
|affordable housing, social supports||1|
|Government by Request for proposals||1|
|Fluoride in the water system. Chem trails. GMOs.||1|
|emergency fire/flood planning||1|
Who are You Voting for Council:
The first column is the poll results, and second is the actual % from 2010
and For Mayor: